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Real Estate Experts Thinking Out Loud: Crash or Correction?

Updated: Jan 13

Looking back at the conversation I had with Dan O’Neil of Signature Properties. That's right, the man, the myth, the legend. As good as he is at selling houses, he's even better at playing golf. So, we went to the beautiful Middle Island Country Club in Long Island, New York, to play golf, drink Bloody Mary’s, and share insights about real estate.

His team’s on fire, as these guys came out of the gate as soon as the world opened up from the health crisis. We actually talked a little bit during the shutdown, whether we should be taking listings or holding them off market. I think it’s a great conversation to have as it helps people gather various perspectives.

Here are some of Q&A’s from our conversation:

Kyle: What do you think the future looks like? Do you think we’re posed for a crash? Do you think we are posed for a correction or going to maintain for a little while?

Dan: I mean the market has to correct itself no matter what. I don't really see a crash coming, but again you know I haven't been around as long as you, I wasn't here for 2008.

Kyle: I'm not a dinosaur either!

Dan: No, no, that wasn't meant like any type of way, but no, you know, I'm not really sure of what happened in 2008-2009. I wasn't actually a part of it, but what I see happening is definitely a correction. I mean, it has to. We've been in this crazy sellers’ market, the craziest probably in a decade. It's really no fun for anyone, except for listing agents or sellers. I think there's definitely going to be a correction, but I just don't see a crash coming. What about you?

Kyle: It's just hard to catch up to the demand. I'm a stats guy, I always look at the numbers and right now we're looking at 14% lower inventory than normal, but a 260% higher demand, so how do you catch up to that, right? We're not going to get a flood of listings all of a sudden even when the foreclosure moratorium lifts, that's not going to cause massive amounts of inventory to come out there. There's no shadow inventory like there was back in like 2008, 2009. I got my license 2009-2010, somewhere around there, and there was this talk of shadow inventory. People have equity even if they have to get out, they can take their time figuring out where they're going to.

Dan: There's been people that we sold a house to a year ago and they've turned around and now sold their house and they made 40 or 50 grand. That's only in a year and that's never been seen before. I think a lot of people are still going to have a ton of equity and I don't see a crash coming and more importantly, agents like yourself, agents like me, our teams do the right thing constantly and you're always doing the right thing, you're still going to be busy, so even if the market does crash, even if something does happen, you and I, our teams, the people that are really doing the right thing, they're going to be successful no matter what.

If you want to hear more about real estate, golf, and Bloody Mary recipes, check out our series on my YouTube channel (Kyle Kelly): “Real Estate Agents in Golf Carts Drinking Bloody Mary's”. Here's the complete playlist:

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